And the circus continues. The weeks following Super Tuesday,1 are when see the shape of the general election beginning to form. Smarter folks than I start drawing out narratives. Here are some stories.
The singular and inescapable takeaway of Super Tuesday is that the stage is set for a Hillary Clinton v. Donald Trump general election. Both won seven out of 11 states and American Samoa. Both didn’t exactly surprise observers in the states won column, but the strength of the respective coalitions Clinton and Trump have coalesced is truly eye-opening.
It turns out both can win in the south—but that means dramatically different things on each side. It’s important to keep in mind when we talk about primary voters, especially in the south, that their demographics vary wildly.2 A tale of two electorate bodies, if you will.
More stark in the south than any other, Democratic primary voters don’t only have different values from their Republican counterparts, but they look very different too. In Georgia for example, the African American community makes up less than a third (31%) of eligible voters, however, they cast over a majority (51%) of 2008 ballots. Turnout numbers from that election cycle are by no means a good corollary for this year, 3 however, the numbers still point to the major racial chasm that underpins our parties’ polarization.
Great Orange Porpoise (GOP)
Trump has a hefty delegate lead (316-226-106 according to RCP early Wednesday morning) but a lot critics are quick to point to the fact he didn’t win the majority of the vote or even a majority of the delegate count. The inevitable outcome of Trump’s inability to pull together a majority coalition is a brokered convention4—painted by critics as the last possible stand to stop the Great Orange Porpoise. An open convention doesn’t shut Trump out of the decision making process though. By virtue of numbers and representation an open convention is less populist for sure,5 but it’s not inconceivable that he offers John Kasich or even Ted Cruz a spot on the ticket or in his cabinet in exchange for their delegates.
An open convention would be good television—and, right in the weird vortex of 2016 presidential election cycle wheelhouse, an incredible opportunity for Trump to flex his deal-making skills. That’s right, his candidacy may very well rest on his ability to close a deal.6
In the meantime, Trump’s lack of a majority coalition and others’ inability to pull fundamentally alter the course of the campaign keeps the GOP field fractured and all the candidates in the race.7 So a plurality of ego will maintain the status quo, and Trump won’t ever need to win more than 40% of the primary vote to ride into the convention with proportionally the same lead he has now.
To celebrate his Super Tuesday victory, Trump’s campaign declined the typical rally and victory speech made by nearly every candidate since Hoover.8 Instead he opted for a brief statement and a press conference. It was strange. Trump was conciliatory but on fire. Reporters were on the attack. Chris Christie was silently trapped in a living nightmare. Cable news carried it for forty-plus minutes. Trump supporters were absent. On the whole, it was a magnificent piece of performance art.
My one gripe is that I wish Trump had gone longer. If he’d chosen to run a 90-minute to two-hour presser, CNN and MSNBC would have stuck with him. I cannot iterate enough how novel the choice was to hold a q and a with reporters on Super Tuesday night. Compared to the other candidates—who looked like candidates at a campaign trail rally—standing behind a podium backing off radical positions, weaseling a bit more to the center, and generally captivating the national conscious for nearly an hour was a feat that looked downright presidential.9
Dems the Yams
Hillary Clinton crushed the South, like bless-her-heart-and-these-stars-and-bars-by-the-good-grace-of-Dixie steamrolled to a 543-349 delegate lead (according to RCP early Wednesday morning). And where the republicans relied on older, conservative and evangelical white voters, Clinton won on the back of black and brown voters.
She absolutely dominated the African American vote, thumping Sanders routinely by 60-point margins and creeping into 90% territory for several states.
Wowza re: Clinton margins with black voters tonight
Alabama : 92-6
TX : 80-18
— Carrie Dann (@CarrieNBCNews) March 2, 2016
Clinton also dispelled any notion that Nevada augured trouble with the Hispanic vote.
— Adrian Carrasquillo (@Carrasquillo) March 2, 2016
Bernie wins 4! Is a semi-popular narrative pushed out by the Sanders’ campaign and its acolytes, but that still also points to a state-focused—not precint-, district-, and delegate-focused—campaign strategy. Whether by design or nature, the middle to upper-middle class white coalition that Sanders has such a firm hold on will not deliver him the Democratic Party nomination.
Without a retail politics approach applied at full-court press intensity in black churches and community organizations across the South, Sanders now relies on a Ray-Allen-corner-three-in-the-last-game-of-the-NBA-Finals-but-on-the-grace-of-a-fortunate-offensive-rebound-type wild finish.10
It almost certainly won’t happen.
Ironically, despite a stronger civil right record, the Jewish organizer from Brooklyn, New York just couldn’t break through. Sanders fundraised a whopping $42M in February though, all but ensuring that he’ll be around till the end, acting as the liberal conscience11 of the party.
Clinton is already using the message of togetherness12 to pit herself against Trump. Unity will be a word continues to use more and more as she positions herself as the elder stateswoman that is the only real choice in the general election.
As long as Sanders sticks around and progressives continue to rally, she’ll have to do some unifying of the Democratic party too. Looking forward, Clinton will have to tap Sanders or at least someone in the liberal flank of the party13 as her running mate.
For a guy who was polling at 3% a year ago, that’s a pretty significant impact to make on one of the craziest presidential election cycles ever.
- Colloquially known as the month of March
- it’s easy to give into the “America is racist” narrative given the nature of Trump’s rise, but take heart because sample size and demographics!
- A certain Black Junior Senator’s meteoric campaign warped everything that year
- This is the last time I’ll refer to it as a brokered convention. It’s an open convention. There’s no dark, cigar smoke-filled room. For a party convention to nominate a presidential candidate, a majority of its delegates must select the nominee. If the first night’s delegate count doesn’t find a majority, then they keep voting until they do. Enter the brokering, but this type of brokering is fundamentally no different than caucuses that rely on voters arguing and persuading other voters to make their candidate viable. Sure there are influencers, union and business leaders and the like making some of the decisions based on what it offers their constituency, but hey, this is politics.
- A clear strength for Trump
- God help us all.
- Even if they don’t “see a path a head.” Jesus, Ben.
- No factual basis for this one. Sorry, just sounded good
- Yet another scary-ass indication that Trump’s campaign low-key knows exactly what it’s doing. Or alternatively, Trump’s team just intimately knows reality television staging. I guess at some point, it’s pretty much the same thing.
- Sanders would have to win Michigan, Florida, Ohio, California and pretty much every other state by dozens of percentage points to make up the delegate difference. And even then, he’s hoping for an open convention, which, we’ve already discussed, is itself a wild proposition.
- Or thorn in the side, if you’re Debbie Wasserman Schultz
- ”…whether you like it or not…”
- Sen. Al Franken (MN) is my dark horse. But home state bias goes to Sen. Maria Cantwell—we could do a lot worse than an all-female ticket.